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From EM to Data Augmentation: The Emergence of MCMC Bayesian Computation in the 1980s

机译:从Em到数据增强:mCmC贝叶斯计算的出现   在20世纪80年代

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摘要

It was known from Metropolis et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 21 (1953) 1087--1092]that one can sample from a distribution by performing Monte Carlo simulationfrom a Markov chain whose equilibrium distribution is equal to the targetdistribution. However, it took several decades before the statistical communityembraced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) as a general computational tool inBayesian inference. The usual reasons that are advanced to explain whystatisticians were slow to catch on to the method include lack of computingpower and unfamiliarity with the early dynamic Monte Carlo papers in thestatistical physics literature. We argue that there was a deeper reason,namely, that the structure of problems in the statistical mechanics and thosein the standard statistical literature are different. To make the methodsusable in standard Bayesian problems, one had to exploit the power that comesfrom the introduction of judiciously chosen auxiliary variables and collectivemoves. This paper examines the development in the critical period 1980--1990,when the ideas of Markov chain simulation from the statistical physicsliterature and the latent variable formulation in maximum likelihoodcomputation (i.e., EM algorithm) came together to spark the widespreadapplication of MCMC methods in Bayesian computation.
机译:从Metropolis等人知道。 [J.化学物理21(1953)1087--1092]可以通过对平衡分布等于目标分布的马尔可夫链执行蒙特卡罗模拟,从分布中进行抽样。但是,统计界花了几十年的时间才将马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)作为贝叶斯推理中的通用计算工具。解释统计学家为什么迟迟不能采用该方法的常见原因包括缺乏计算能力以及对统计物理学文献中早期的动态蒙特卡洛论文不熟悉。我们认为存在更深层的原因,即统计机制中的问题结构与标准统计文献中的问题结构不同。为了使这些方法在标准的贝叶斯问题中可用,必须利用明智引入的辅助变量和集体运动的引入所产生的影响。本文考察了1980--1990年关键时期的发展,当时统计物理文学和最大似然计算中的潜在变量公式(即EM算法)的马尔可夫链模拟思想相结合,激发了MCMC方法在贝叶斯方法中的广泛应用。计算。

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